About this diagram: Randomized Controlled Trial Design
The randomized controlled trial is the primary design for establishing causal efficacy of an intervention. Random allocation of participants to intervention and control groups is the critical mechanism: it distributes both known and unknown confounders equally between arms in expectation, so that differences in outcomes can be attributed to the intervention rather than pre-existing differences between groups. Block and stratified randomization ensure balance on key prognostic factors (age, disease severity) even in moderate sample sizes of 200 to 1,000 participants per arm. Allocation concealment (hiding the allocation sequence from those enrolling participants) and blinding (masking arm assignment from participants and outcome assessors) are additional safeguards against selection bias and ascertainment bias respectively. A double-blind trial, where neither the participant nor the clinician knows the allocation, minimises placebo effects and assessment bias simultaneously.
Intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis is the pre-specified primary analytic strategy in well-designed RCTs: all participants are analysed in the arm to which they were randomized, regardless of whether they actually received the treatment (crossovers, non-compliers, dropouts). ITT preserves the comparability guaranteed by randomization; a per-protocol analysis that excludes non-compliers can reintroduce confounding because compliance is itself associated with prognosis. The CONSORT reporting standard (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials, widely adopted since 1996) requires a participant flow diagram showing screening, randomization, and completion numbers, which is the direct visual origin of this diagram. Sample size calculations for RCTs are driven by the expected effect size, desired power (typically 80 to 90%), and significance threshold (alpha = 0.05); for a drug reducing a binary event rate from 10% to 7%, approximately 900 participants per arm are needed for 80% power, illustrating why phase III trials routinely cost tens of millions of dollars.